Elections

Start Packing Nancy! GOP Expected To Take House In Midterms

Published on May 30, 2022

Elections are part data, part emotions, and part hyperbole.

People are generally allowed to exaggerate, manipulate and even lie when speaking about their candidate or political party’s chances in upcoming elections. The lying is excused as just playing cat and mouse with the other side of the aisle, trying to keep them nervous or when possible feeling defeated.

The 2022 mid-term campaigns have, so far, been more one-sided in the reporting and the polling. The Biden administration’s failing domestic and international policies and decisions are negatively affecting Americans’ lives, across the board.

For example, increasing inflation is costing the average American family an additional $5,000 a year for the same products and services.

The failed Afghanistan withdrawal and 40 billion dollars sent to Ukraine while Americans are struggling to get baby formula has soured, even non-political parents against Joe Biden. The confusing and poorly run COVID lockdown drawdown, adds to the publics’ lack of confidence in the White House.

“I’ve been telling Democrats, especially Democrats in targeted seats, enjoy the holidays, and you got a decision to make: retire or lose next fall,” Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told The Hill.

Emmer cautioned that a GOP House majority is not guaranteed, though he asserted that as many as 70 Democrats could lose their seats in a possible wave, warning “in this environment, no Democrat is safe.”

According to a report from Axios, House Democrats have such a bleak outlook for the upcoming midterms that even districts President Joe Biden won by up to 15 points are in danger of flipping red

Citing the Cook Political Report that predicts Republicans will gain a net 20 to 35 seats in the midterm, shifting 10 races in favor of Republicans while only two in favor of Democrats, Axios concluded that Democrats have “bleak” prospects for this November. Per the report:

23 House Democrats have announced they won’t seek re-election, compared to just 11 Republicans.

President Biden’s approval has been hovering in the low 40s for several months, with inflation driving down his popularity.

Polling shows Republicans are winning the generic congressional ballot by an average of 1.9 points — and they have still room to grow.

Cook’s U.S. House editor Dave Wasserman said the most competitive races will be in states like New York, Michigan, Arizona, and California, states where “a court or commission drew a congressional map as opposed to a partisan one.”

“That’s where you’re going to see a lot of money spent,” Wasserman told Axios.

Wasserman referred to states with tight races and no competitive statewide election (as in Georgia) to drive turnout as “orphan states” that will be especially vulnerable come November.

“The only path to survival for those Democrats may be to go ‘scorched earth’ against still-undefined Republican challengers — which, at this point in the race, includes essentially all first-time candidates,” Axios noted.

The report follows court losses in Democrats’ gerrymandering efforts, which the party was planning on using to secure victories in November, trying to offset expected losses in other districts.

The Democrats held out some hope of putting up a solid fight in November with wins in New York, Maryland, Illinois, Alabama, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but as election expert Dave Wasserman notes, recent court rulings have rendered that optimism moot.

“The legal setbacks and losses Democrats have suffered in the last three months have been staggering,” Wasserman said.

In the solidly blue state of New York alone, the GOP could win up to 11 U.S. House seats due to some recent court rulings, which resulted in Democrat Party leaders, such as House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), being forced into facing off against each other in primary challenges.

Democrats’ original plans in New York could have knocked out half of the eight GOP-held seats and boosted the party’s 19-member delegation to 22

Instead, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y), chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, will run in a district that includes his home — but is mostly represented by Black freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.). Maloney’s decision has angered many in the caucus.

In a twist, Jones will avoid that primary by running in a different redrawn district — facing off against former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, among others.

The GOP in Florida is working on picking up an extra 4 U.S. House seats this November, via their political redistricting map. An appeals court recently stayed a lower court decision that blocked a draft by the state GOP, so the final outcome is still undecided.

“To avoid uncertainty and confusion in the upcoming 2022 primary and general elections, it’s important to move forward expeditiously to implement the congressional map passed by the legislature and signed by the governor,” Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office said of the ruling.

For me the question is not will the GOP take back the House, but if they also take back the U.S. Senate, will they actually do something this time?

The United States issues are now past the point of being able to be kicked down the road so more, things must be addressed now, for Liberty’s sake.