Historically US Presidents have lost seats in the first midterm elections after becoming the Commander In Chief. A “balance of powers” check by the American electorate though not necessarily intentional.
As a point of reference, former President Barack Obama had a high approval rating going into the 2010 midterms but could not help the Democrats hold onto the House.
Republicans gained seven seats in the Senate (including a special election held in January 2010) but failed to gain a majority in the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections. In-state elections, Republicans won a net gain of six gubernatorial seats and flipped control of twenty state legislative chambers, giving them a substantial advantage in the redistricting that occurred following the 2010 United States Census. The election was widely characterized as a “Republican wave” election.
In addition to history, President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval numbers, his apparent mental and physical decline, and failing policies such as the ongoing Afghanistan withdrawal disaster have many on the left panicking about the upcoming 2022 mid-terms.
Some of the reasons:
- 50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.
- According to poll numbers that were published on September 8, Biden’s approval rating has dipped to 39 percent which marks the lowest of his presidency to date. The poll showed that 49 percent of Americans disapprove of the job the President is doing.
- In addition to Afghanistan, skyrocketing inflation, and his administration’s mismanagement of COVID has cost Biden his political capital.
- At 79 years of age, basement Joe doesn’t appear to have the energy to campaign for democrats who are at risk of losing their US House seats.
Douglas Schoen who served as a political consultant under President Bill Clinton and worked on the 2020 Bloomberg Presidential Campaign believes signs are pointing to a Republican landslide come next year. “The marked decline in support for President Joe Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections,” Schoen wrote.
Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week.
The political consultant outlined the dichotomy between Biden’s current position of weakness and the more stable positions that President Barack Obama and President Clinton experienced as they approached their first midterm elections:
Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.
Specifically, Obama’s approval rating at the same point in his presidency was 19 points higher than Biden’s is now. “At the same time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2010.” After the 2010 elections, Republicans gained a House majority by adding 64 seats, while closing the gap in the senate by acquiring 6 seats.
Unless the Democratic-controlled US Congress is able to get through HR1 nationalizing elections or can use mail-in ballots to flips elections, the GOP should be the majority in both chambers of the congress after Tuesday, November 8, 2022.
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